Geostat revised 2024 and 1H25 real GDP growth upwards
In 2024, real GDP growth was 9.7% y/y, revised upwards from 9.4% y/y based on the annual survey. Geostat also updated the 1Q25 and 2Q25 estimates to 9.9% y/y and 7.4% y/y (previously 9.8% and 7.3%). As a result, real GDP expanded by 8.6% in 1H25. Incorporating the 3Q25 rapid estimate of 6.5% y/y, overall economic growth came in at 7.8% y/y in 9M25.
We forecast real GDP to grow by 7.5% in 2025 and 6.0% in 2026.
Trade deficit decreased by 5.9% y/y in Oct-25
In Oct-25, goods exports increased by 0.4% y/y to US$ 684.5mn, following a 14.2% y/y growth in previous month. Goods imports reduced by 3.0% y/y to US$ 1.5bn, after a 2.5% y/y rise in previous month. Consequently, the trade deficit narrowed by 5.9% y/y to US$ 775.6mn in Oct-25.
Overall, in 10M25, the trade deficit widened by 11.1% y/y to US$ 9.2bn, as exports grew by 6.8% y/y to US$ 5.8bn and imports were up by 9.3% y/y, reaching US$ 15.0bn.
Tourism revenues estimated at US$ 420mn in Oct-25
Tourism revenues increased by 4.0% y/y to US$ 420mn in Oct-25, according to our estimates. Overall, in 10M25, tourism revenues came in at US$ 4.06bn (+5.0% y/y), by our estimates.
We forecast tourism revenues at US$ 4.6bn for 2025 and US$ 4.9bn for 2026.
