International reserves at US$ 5.0bn in Dec-23
Gross international reserves increased by 2.1% y/y to US$ 5.0bn in Dec-23, according to NBG. However, on a monthly basis, the reserves decreased by 2.3% (-US$ 118.7mn). Changes in reserves were mainly attributed to the reduction of the upper limit of the reserve norm on short-term FX liabilities from 25% to 20%, along with the government and banking sector FX operations.
Tourism revenues estimated at US$ 330mn in Dec-23
Tourism revenues reached US$ 330mn (+21.0% y/y, excluding migration effect) in Dec-23, according to our estimates. Overall, tourism revenues came in at US$ 4.2bn (+19.2% y/y) in 2023, based on our estimates. We forecast tourism revenues at US$ 4.5bn (+7.0% y/y) for 2024, assuming that international visits to Georgia will fully recover to pre-pandemic levels.
Fitch Affirms Georgia at BB, Outlook Positive
On 12 January 2024, Fitch Affirmed Georgia’s sovereign credit rating at BB, with a Positive Outlook. The rating is supported by Georgia’s strong governance and economic development indicators relative to the BB medians, its credible macroeconomic and fiscal policy framework, moderate level of public debt, and sound banking sector. The Positive Outlook reflects continued strong economic growth, alongside a marked fall in inflation, and greater confidence in the durability of large migrant and capital inflows since 2022 that have boosted potential growth and the external position. Fitch expects Georgia’s real GDP growth of 5.0% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2025.
