Annual inflation was 2.0% in Jan-25
In Jan-25, annual inflation was 2.0%, up from 1.9% posted in Dec-24. The annual inflation was primarily driven by a 2.3% y/y rise in domestic inflation (+2.2% y/y in Dec-24), followed by a 3.5% y/y increased in mixed goods inflation (+3.9% y/y in Dec-24). Meanwhile, imported inflation declined by -0.4% y/y (-0.9% y/y in the previous month). Notably, core inflation, excluding volatile food, energy and tobacco prices, slowed to 2.0% y/y in Jan-25 from 2.3% y/y in December.
By categories, annual inflation in Jan-25 was largely driven by price changes in food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.0% y/y, +1.03ppts), alcoholic beverages & tobacco (+6.2% y/y, +0.41ppts), healthcare (+3.8% y/y, +0.34ppts), education (+5.1% y/y, +0.26ppts), hotels & restaurants (+6.8% y/y, +0.23ppts), transport (-1.0% y/y, -0.12ppts) and communication (-12.5% y/y, -0.46ppts) categories.
On a monthly basis, there was a 0.4% inflation in Jan-25, mainly due to rising prices in food and non-alcoholic beverages (+1.1% m/m, +0.40ppts) category.
We forecast average annual inflation at 3.9% in 2025.
Tourism revenues estimated at US$ 290mn in Jan-25
Tourism revenues increased by 1.4% y/y to US$ 290mn in Jan-25, according to our estimates. We forecast tourism revenues to reach US$ 4.5bn in 2025.
International reserves at US$ 4.4bn in Jan-25
Gross international reserves decreased by 8.7% y/y to US$ 4.4bn in Jan-25, according to NBG. On a monthly basis, the reserves were down by 0.4% (-US$ 18.5mn). Changes in reserves were attributed to the government and/or banking sector FX operations, and likely also to NBG’s FX trading via BMatch platform (information will be available on 25 February). Notably, as of Jan-25, monetary gold accounted for 14.4% of total international reserves.
