Highlights

  • US GDP growth in 4Q17 was revised down to an annualized 2.5% y/y (2nd estimate) from an annualized 2.6% y/y (advance estimate). GDP growth in EU19 was 2.7% y/y in both 3Q17 and 4Q17.
  • Based on rapid estimates, in January 2018 economic growth was 10.2% y/y in Armenia, 4.7% y/y in Kazakhstan, 4.6% y/y in Belarus, 4.4% y/y in Georgia, 2.5% y/y in Russia, and 2.0% y/y in Azerbaijan. Economic growth in Ukraine came in at 1.8% y/y in 4Q17.  
  • Annual inflation in the US was 2.1% in January 2018 unchanged from December 2017. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was down to 1.2% in February 2018 from 1.3% in January 2018.
  • In February 2018, annual inflation decreased in Georgia (2.7%), Kazakhstan (6.5%), Turkey (10.3%) and Ukraine (14.0%) and increased in Armenia (3.3%). In Russia inflation remained unchanged at 2.2% in February 2018. January 2018 figures indicate a decrease in annual inflation to 4.5% in Belarus and 5.5% in Azerbaijan.
  • As of 12 March 2018, monetary policy rate is 13.0% (down from 15.0%) in Azerbaijan, 10.5% (down from 11.0%) in Belarus, 7.5% (down from 7.75%) in Russia and 9.5% (down from 9.75%) in Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, the policy rate was raised to 17.0% from 16.0% in Ukraine. The policy rate has remained unchanged in other countries.
  • S&P raised both foreign and local sovereign credit ratings for Russia to BBB- from BB+ and to BBB from BBB-, respectively and the outlook was revised to stable from positive. Moody’s downgraded credit rating of Turkey to Ba2 from Ba1 and changed the outlook to stable.

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.