Geostat revised 2023 real GDP growth upwards
In 2023, real GDP growth was 7.8% y/y, revised upwards from 7.5% y/y based on the annual survey. In addition, Geostat has adjusted 1Q24 and 2Q24 GDP figures, increasing them to 8.7% y/y and 9.7% y/y, respectively, up from 8.4% y/y and 9.6% y/y. Consequently, the cumulative real GDP growth for 1H24 stands at 9.2%. Considering the rapid estimate of 11.1% y/y for 3Q24, Georgia’s economy grew by 9.9% y/y in 9M24.
We forecast real GDP to grow by 9.0% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2025.
Goods exports surged by 39.0% y/y in Oct-24
In Oct-24, goods exports surged by 39.0% y/y to US$ 681.7mn, after a 17.0% y/y growth in previous month. Goods imports increased by 5.6% y/y to US$ 1.4bn, after falling by 0.3% y/y in previous month. Consequently, the trade deficit narrowed by 13.2% y/y to US$ 756.0mn in Oct-24.
Overall, in 10M24, trade deficit widened by 3.0% y/y to US$ 8.1bn, as exports increased by 7.4% y/y to US$ 5.5bn and imports were up by 4.8% y/y to US$ 13.6bn.
Money transfers stood at US$ 281.1mn in Oct-24
Money transfers decreased by 1.5% y/y to US$ 281.1mn in Oct-24, after a 1.1% y/y decline in previous month. Among the top countries, money transfers increased from the EU (+11.5% y/y, 45.9% of total), the USA (+20.6% y/y, 18.1% of total) and Israel (+23.1% y/y, 7.5% of total) in October. In contrast, transfers reduced from Russia (-44.5% y/y, 12.2% of total) and Kazakhstan (-53.8% y/y, 2.7% of total). Overall, in 10M24 money transfers decreased by 20.6% y/y to US$ 2.8bn. We expect money transfers at US$ 3.4bn for the full year of 2024, down from US$ 4.1bn in 2023.
