Real GDP growth accelerated in Apr-24
Georgia’s real GDP growth accelerated, up by 11.8% y/y in Apr-24, after growing by 8.2% in previous month. Cumulatively, real GDP growth reached 9.0% y/y in 4M24. The manufacturing, construction, ICT, transport, professional & scientific activities and trade sectors were the primary drivers of growth in April. In contrast, the energy sector contracted during the same period. We maintain our real GDP baseline growth forecast at 6.0% for 2024 (see updated macro forecasts here).
Bank lending increased by 18.4% y/y in Apr-24
In Apr-24, the banking sector loan portfolio increased by 18.4% y/y (+1.7% m/m), excluding FX effect, after a 17.3% y/y growth in previous month. In unadjusted terms, loan portfolio rose by 21.8% y/y (+1.4% m/m), reaching GEL 54.5bn (US$ 20.3bn), after growing 20.0% y/y in Mar-24. By sector, corporate loans increased by 21.7% y/y (exc. FX effect) in April and retail loans were up 15.8% y/y. Loan dollarization stood at 44.7% (+0.63ppts y/y and -0.06ppts m/m) in Apr-24.
Bank deposits increased by 17.7% y/y (exc. FX effect) to GEL 52.3bn (US$ 19.5bn) in Apr-24, after growing by 16.7% y/y in previous month. In terms of currency breakdown, GEL deposits increased by 29.1% y/y and FX deposits (exc. FX effect) were up 6.9% y/y. As a result, the level of deposit dollarization reduced to 48.3% (-3.05ppts y/y and -1.41ppts m/m) in Apr-24.
NBG sold US$ 48.7mn
On May 28, 2024, the NBG intervened in the FX market and sold US$ 48.7mn out of offered US$ 60mn to curb GEL volatility. Notably, the NBG is a net buyer of c.US$ 150mn year-to-date by our estimates.
