Unemployment rate reduced in 2Q24
The unemployment rate reduced by 3.1ppts y/y to a new record low level of 13.7% in 2Q24, driven by strong economic growth. During this period, the number of hired employed individuals increased by 2.1% y/y, accounting for 67.4% of total employment, while self-employed persons rose by 10.1% y/y. Notably, labor force participation rate increased by 1.3ppts y/y to 54.5 % in 2Q24, although it decreased from 55.0% in 1Q24.
We forecast unemployment rate at 14.5% in 2024, down from 16.4% in 2023.
Goods exports surged by 29.9% y/y in Jul-24
In Jul-24, goods exports surged by 29.9% y/y to a new record high monthly level of US$ 684.6mn, following a 5.8% y/y growth in previous month. Imports also increased by 7.2% y/y to US$ 1.4bn, recovering from a 5.7% y/y decline in previous month. Consequently, the trade deficit decreased by 7.8% y/y to US$ 735.7mn in Jul-24.
The top 5 exported commodities were cars (+38.4% y/y), ferro-alloys (+37.1x y/y), spirits (+98.6% y/y), wine (-26.5% y/y) and aerated waters (+103.0% y/y) in Jul-24. A 5.2% of exports were directed to the EU (-29.9% y/y), 69.5% to the CIS (+37.2% y/y) and 25.3% to other countries (+33.9% y/y).
The top 5 imports were cars (-30.4% y/y), petroleum (+23.5% y/y), pharmaceuticals (+18.4% y/y), automatic data processing machines (+350.1% y/y) and mixed goods (+20.5x y/y) in Jul-24.
Overall, in 7M24, trade deficit increased by 5.8% y/y to US$ 5.5bn, as exports declined by 1.3% y/y to US$ 3.5bn, while imports rose by 2.9% y/y to US$ 9.0bn.
Producer price index increased by 8.2% y/y in Jul-24
Annual PPI for industrial goods rose by 8.2% in Jul-24, after increasing by 9.3% y/y in previous month. The annual growth was mainly driven by a rise in prices in the manufacturing sector (+7.4% y/y) and mining (+20.9% y/y) sectors.
