Visitors
International visitors increased by 1.3% y/y to 1.2mn in 1Q25. The growth was solely driven by tourists, the main segment, which rose by 2.2% y/y to 1.0mn. In contrast, the number of same-day visitors declined by 2.4% y/y to 0.2mn. The modest growth in 1Q25 points to a slowdown in momentum, particularly from EU.
The overall increase in international visitors was supported by strong growth of arrivals from Azerbaijan (+25.9% y/y) and Asian markets, including Israel (+72.9% y/y), India (+27.7% y/y), and China (+40.1% y/y). Meanwhile arrivals declined from traditional source markets such as Turkey (-11.5% y/y), Armenia (-5.7% y/y), Kazakhstan (-22.4% y/y), and EU (-4.1% y/y), weighing on overall growth.
For the full year 2025, we project international tourist arrivals to reach 5.3mn (up from 5.1mn in 2024), driven mainly by arrival growth from Asian markets. Potential reopening of Azeri land border is also an upside.
Revenues
Tourism revenues stood at US$826.0mn in 1Q25, marking a 2.3% y/y increase. Russia remained the top source of tourism revenue in 1Q25 (17.2% of total), despite a 17.2% y/y decline. Israel recorded the highest 73.7% y/y growth in revenue (13.8% of total) total, becoming the 2nd-largest source), overtaking Turkey (-8.9% y/y, 13.0% of total) following a sharp drop in Turkish visitors. Revenues from EU also declined (-4.8% y/y, 12.5% of total), reflecting reduced arrival numbers.
We expect tourism revenues to reach US$ 4.5bn in 2025, up from US$ 4.4bn in 2024.
