Exports and imports stayed solid in September 2021
In September 2021, both exports (at US$ 373.6mn, up 12.8% y/y, up 22.3% vs Sep-19) and imports (at US$ 925.8mn, up 23.4% y/y, up 15.1% vs Sep-19) remained solid, according to Geostat’s preliminary data, continuation of last three months trend. Notably, last year’s low base and higher world commodity prices markedly boosted imports, resulting trade deficit to widen by 31.8% y/y to US$ 552.2mn (which is also up 10.7% vs Sep-2019). Overall, in 9M21, trade deficit was up by 19.9% y/y (down 0.5% vs 9M19) to US$ 4.0bn, as economic recovery and higher world commodity prices boosted imports (up 21.6% y/y and up 3.3% vs 9M19), while exports were also solid (up 24.0% y/y and up 9.0% vs 9M19).
Money transfers hit a record high figure in September 2021
Money transfers increased by 8.8% y/y to a record high US$ 209.8mn in September 2021, according to NBG, after growing by 11.2% y/y in previous month. Notably, remittances were also up by 40.1% compared to September 2019 level. From major remitting countries, money transfers increased strongly from Italy (+16.6% y/y, 16.2% of total), Russia (+9.8% y/y, 18.4% of total), USA (+8.2% y/y, 11.7% of total), Israel (+10.4% y/y, 7.4% of total) and Germany (+44.1% y/y, 5.2% of total). Meanwhile, from major remitting countries, money transfers declined from Greece (-6.8% y/y), Turkey (-6.6% y/y) and Ukraine (-39.7% y/y). Overall, in 9M21 remittances stood at US$ 1.7bn, up 27.8% y/y and up 35.7% vs. 9M19.
IMF updates world economic outlook
In October 2021, the IMF released updated world economic outlook. The IMF projects the global economy to grow by 5.9% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022, 0.1 percentage point lower for 2021 than in the Jul-21 forecast. The downward revision for 2021 reflects a downgrade for advanced economies (in part due to supply disruptions) and for low-income developing countries (largely due to worsening pandemic dynamics). This is partially offset by stronger near-term prospects among some commodity-exporting emerging markets and developing economies. Based on the IMF, rapid spread of Delta and the threat of new variants have increased uncertainty about how quickly the pandemic can be overcome and policy choices have become more difficult, with limited room to maneuver. According to the IMF, Georgia expected to be one of the growth leaders in the region with growth projected at 7.7% and 5.8% for 2021 and 2022, respectively.
