ბაზრის ყოველკვირეული მიმოხილვა
Tourist arrivals recovered to 43.0% of 2019 level in Oct-21
Recovery in tourism continued in October 2021, with tourist arrivals (overnight stays) recovering to 43.0% of Oct-19 level, up from an average 36.4% recovery during 3Q21. Meanwhile, same-day arrivals, accounting for c.30% of total international arrivals pre-Covid, remained weak, accounting for 7.5% of Oct-19 level. That said, 205.7 thousand international visitors (up 313.7% y/y, tourists and same-day arrivals combined) traveled to Georgia in Oct-21, with most visitors from Turkey (17.4% of total), followed by Russia (14.2% of total) and Armenia (9.4% of total). Most visitors traveled to Georgia via land (53.7% of total), followed by air (45.5% of total). Overall, in 10M21, total international arrivals stood at 1.4mn persons (-1.8% y/y, 21.0% of 2019 level) and tourism revenues reached US$ 1.0bn based on our estimates (+96.7% y/y, 35.5% of 2019 level).
Government projects a 4.4% deficit in the 2022 draft budget
The government has submitted a second draft of 2022 budget to the parliament, incorporating also revised macro parameters for 2021. The 2022 budget framework is based on 6.0% real GDP growth and 4.5% deflator assumption. Notably, in the second 2022 budget draft, the government revised upwards 2021 growth forecast to 10.0% from 9.5% projection set in the first draft of 2022 budget. Consolidated budget tax revenues are set to increase by 19.3% y/y to 23.7% of GDP in 2022, reflecting also termination of COVID-related tax relief. Current expenditures are set to reduce to 22.6% of GDP in 2022 (down from 26.2% in 2020 and 24.6% in 2021), as COVID-related healthcare expenditure are planned to reduce (although the current expenditure ratio is increased compared to the level set in the first budget draft, due to planned increase in wages by GEL 236mn for 2022). Meanwhile, capital expenditures remain high at 8.6% of GDP in 2022. Th fiscal deficit is projected at 4.4% of GDP in 2022, down from 6.7% in 2021, which returns to pre-pandemic level of below 3.0% of GDP from 2023. Notably, public debt is projected at 52.2% of GDP for 2022, slightly down from 52.5% of GDP in 2021.
