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Tourism Market Watch - September 2019

9 Oct, 2019

In Sep-19, total international visitors (tourists and same-day combined) were up 2.7% y/y to 0.78mn persons. Out of total, Georgia hosted 0.53mn tourists (up 0.6% y/y) and 0.24mn same-day visitors (up 7.7% y/y) in September. Slow arrival growth in September like in two previous months reflected significantly reduced arrivals from largest source markets - Russia and Iran. Notably, due to last year’s high base, arrivals from Russia reduced sharper (-20.6% y/y) in Sep-19 compared to two previous months (-7.6% y/y). Meanwhile, arrivals from all other neighbors (Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey) continued growing. Notably, arrivals from Turkey are on the rise since Jun-19 after falling from Sep-18 to May-19. 

Please see the full note here, which brings together tourist arrival data for reporting month, most recent statistical information available in the sector and 2019 forecast.


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Georgia's Energy Sector - Electricity Market Watch | 8M19

3 Oct, 2019

Electricity consumption growth slowed to 2.3% y/y in 8M19, significantly below forecasted numbers as well as growth levels of previous periods. On supply side, hydrogenation decreased by 9.7% y/y due to unfavourable hydrological conditions. Reduced generation created demand on imported electricity despite the low consumption growth rate. As a result, electricity trade deficit widened 80.5% y/y to US$ 29.6mn in 8M19, and we expect trade deficit to double for the full year of 2019.

The Ministry of Economy revised downwards 2019 electricity consumption growth forecast to 5.7% from initial projection of 13.2%. The revised forecast takes into consideration actual consumption figures of 1H19.

Energy sector was largest FDI recipient in 1H19. FDI in energy sector increased 32% y/y and stood at US$ 112mn.

Importantly, market deregulation process is evidenced by intensified activities from power traders and direct consumers’ increased share in the total electricity consumption mix. The latter increased from 12% of total electricity consumption in 2017 to 21.5% in 8M19, as a result of legislative changes.

Parliament is discussing two energy-related laws - 1) on energy and water supply and 2) on promotion of renewable energy sources. Both laws are expected to be adopted by the end of the year, but the bylaws are set for a longer term.


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Georgia's Tourism Sector - Tourism Market Watch | August 2019

20 Sept, 2019

International visitors continued growing in Aug-19 despite Russia’s ban on direct flights. Importantly, growth levels of total arrivals as well as tourist arrivals strengthened slightly compared to previous month. In Aug-19, total international visitors (tourists and same-day combined) were up 4.4% y/y to 1.1mn, of which tourists reached 0.8mn persons, up 2.3% y/y. Pick up in same-day arrivals (+9.7% y/y) is explained by strong arrival growth from neighbors: Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey. Notably, arrivals from Turkey are growing for the 3rd consecutive month after falling from Sep-18 to May-19.

Please see the full note here, which brings together tourist arrival data for reporting month, most recent statistical information available in the sector and 2019 forecast.


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Georgia's Tourism Sector - Tourism Market Watch | July 2019

6 Aug, 2019

  • International visitor growth (tourists and same-day combined) slowed to 4.3% y/y (0.9mn persons) in July-19 after 19.9% y/y growth in Jun-19. This growth was predominantly driven by 11.1% y/y increase in same-day arrivals.  Tourist arrivals slowed but still posted growth of 1.0% y/y in July 2019 despite Russia’s ban on direct flights to Georgia from 8 July 2019. The number of Russian arrivals reduced softer than expected - down 6.4% y/y in July. This was largely compensated by increased Russian arrivals through land border and via alternative transit flights. 
  • Visitors from the EU were up 14.4% y/y to nearly 55k visitors, with Germany (+33.7% y/y) and Poland (+15.7% y/y) driving growth in July.
  • Tourism generated US$ 428mn revenues in July-19 by our estimates, down 1.1% y/y. This figure reflects reduced Russian arrivals via air, which usually are considered high spenders than those crossing the land border. In 7M19, tourism revenues stood at US$ 1.9bn, up 5.0% y/y. We expect tourism revenues to be flat y/y in 2H19 at US$ 1.9bn as we estimate tourism revenue loss of US$ 200mn in 2019 from reduced Russian arrivals. For the full 2019 year we project tourism revenues at US$ 3.4bn


Please see the full note here, which brings together tourist arrival data for reporting month, most recent statistical information available in the sector and 2019 forecast.


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