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Regional Fixed Income Market Watch | March 2019

12 Apr, 2019

Highlights

  • US real GDP growth in 4Q18 was revised down to an annualized 2.2% (3rd estimate), from 2.6% initial estimate. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8% in March 2019.
  • In February 2019, economic growth accelerated and came in at 7.6% y/y in Armenia, 4.6% y/y in Georgia, 4.3% y/y in Kazakhstan and 2.1% y/y in Russia, based on rapid estimates. In 2M19, real GDP growth was 3.0% y/y in Azerbaijan and 0.8% y/y in Belarus.
  • According to the IMF’s 2019 World Economic Outlook, real GDP growth projections for 2019 remained unchanged for Georgia (4.6%), Ukraine (2.7%) and Russia (1.6%), while it was reduced for Armenia (-0.2ppts to 4.6%), Azerbaijan (-0.2ppts to 3.4%), Belarus (-1.3ppts to 1.8%) and Turkey (-2.9ppts to -2.5%); real GDP growth projection was revised upwards for Kazakhstan (+0.1ppts to 3.2%).  
  • Annual inflation in the US was 1.9% in March 2019, up from 1.5% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 1.4% in March 2019, down from 1.5% in February 2019.
  • In March 2019, annual inflation was above the target level in Georgia (3.7%), Russia (5.3%), Belarus (5.8%), Ukraine (8.6%) and Turkey (19.7%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (4.8%), and below the target in Armenia (1.9%).
  • Monetary policy rate was cut by 0.25bp to 6.5% in Georgia, by 0.25bp to 9.0% in Azerbaijan and has remained unchanged in other countries in March 2019.

 

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.


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Regional Fixed Income Market Watch | February 2019

20 Mar, 2019

Highlights

  • Real GDP in the US grew at a 2.6% annualized rate (initial estimate) in 4Q18 after 3.4% growth in 3Q18. Unemployment rate was 3.8% in February 2019, down from 4.0% in previous month.
  • EU19 real GDP grew by 1.1% y/y in 4Q18 after 1.6% y/y growth in 3Q18. Unemployment rate in EU19 was unchanged at 7.8% in January 2019.
  • Turkish economy contracted by 3.0% y/y in 4Q18, bringing 2018 real GDP growth at 2.6% y/y.
  • In January 2019, economic growth was 6.0% y/y in Armenia, 3.5% y/y in Georgia, 2.9% y/y in Kazakhstan, 2.9% y/y in Azerbaijan, 0.7% y/y in Belarus and 0.2% y/y in Russia, based on rapid estimates.
  • Annual inflation in the US was 1.5% in February 2019, down from 1.6% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 1.5% in February 2019, up from 1.4% in January 2019.
  • In February 2019, annual inflation was below the target level in Armenia (1.9%) and Georgia (2.3%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (4.8%), and above the target in Russia (5.2%), Belarus (6.2%), Ukraine (8.8%) and Turkey (19.7%). Annual inflation was 2.2% in Azerbaijan.
  • As of 19 March 2019, monetary policy rate was cut by 0.25bp to 6.5% in Georgia, by 0.25bp to 9.0% in Azerbaijan and has remained unchanged in other countries.
  • In February 2019, Fitch upgraded Georgia’s sovereign credit rating to BB from BB-, with stable outlook.

 


Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.


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Regional Fixed Income Market Watch | January 2019

22 Feb, 2019

Highlights

  • EU19 real GDP grew by 1.8% y/y in 2018. Unemployment rate in EU19 was unchanged at 7.9% in December 2018.
  • China’s economy grew by 6.6% y/y in 2018. The growth was slowed in 2H18.
  • In 2018, economic growth was 5.8% y/y in Armenia, 4.8% y/y in Georgia, 4.1% y/y in Kazakhstan, 3.3% y/y in Ukraine, 3.0% y/y in Belarus, 2.3% y/y in Russia and 1.4% y/y in Azerbaijan, based on rapid estimates.
  • Annual inflation in the US was 1.6% in January 2019, down from 1.9% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 1.4% in January 2019, down from 1.6% in December 2019.
  • In January 2019, annual inflation was below the target level in Armenia (0.6%) and Georgia (2.2%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (5.2%), and above the target in Russia (5.0%), Belarus (5.8%), Ukraine (9.2%) and Turkey (20.4%). Annual inflation was 1.7% in Azerbaijan.
  • YTD, monetary policy rate was cut by 0.25bp to 6.75% in Georgia, by 0.25bp to 5.75% in Armenia, by 0.5bp to 9.25% in Azerbaijan and has remained unchanged in other countries.
  • Moody’s upgraded credit rating of Russia to Baa3 from Ba1 and changed the outlook to stable on 8 February 2019.

 

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.


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Regional Fixed Income Market Watch | December 2018

18 Jan, 2019

Highlights

  • Real GDP growth in the US was revised down to an annualized 3.4% y/y (3rd estimate) from 3.5% y/y (2nd estimate) in 3Q18. Unemployment rate was 3.9% in December 2018, up from 3.7% in previous month.
  • Economic growth came in at 1.8% y/y in Russia, 2.2% y/y in Georgia, 3.6% y/y in Armenia and 4.3% y/y in Kazakhstan in November 2018, based on rapid estimates. In 11M18, real GDP growth was 3.2% y/y in Belarus and 1.0% y/y in Azerbaijan. Ukrainian economy grew by 2.8% y/y in 3Q18.
  • Annual inflation in the US was 1.9% in December 2018, down from 2.2% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 1.6% in December 2018, down from 1.9% in November 2018.
  • In December 2018, annual inflation was below the target level in Georgia (1.5%), Armenia (1.8%), and Belarus (5.6%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (5.3%), and above the target in Russia (4.3%), Ukraine (9.8%) and Turkey (20.3%). Annual inflation was 1.7% in Azerbaijan.
  • Monetary policy rate was raised to 7.75% from 7.5% in Russia in December 2018 and has remained unchanged in other countries.
  • Moody’s upgraded credit rating of Ukraine to Caa1 from Caa2 and changed the outlook to stable in December 2018.

 

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.


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