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Year: Month: All releases Economy Sectors Companies
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Regional Fixed Income Market Watch | May 2019

19 June, 2019

Highlights

  • Real GDP growth in the US was revised down to an annualized 3.1% (2nd estimate) in 1Q19 from 3.2% initial estimate. Unemployment rate was 3.6% in May 2019, unchanged from previous month.
  • Turkish economy contracted by 2.6% y/y in 1Q19, after falling 3.0% y/y in 4Q18.
  • In April 2019, economic growth was 9.2% y/y in Armenia, 5.1% y/y in Georgia, 3.6% y/y in Kazakhstan and 2.7% y/y in Russia, based on preliminary data. In 4M19, real GDP growth was 2.1% y/y in Azerbaijan and 1.2% y/y in Belarus.
  • Annual inflation in the US was 1.8% in May 2019, down from 2.0% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 1.2% in May 2019, down from 1.7% in April 2019.
  • In May 2019, annual inflation was above the target level in Georgia (4.7%), Russia (5.1%), Belarus (6.2%), Ukraine (9.6%) and Turkey (18.7%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (5.3%), and below the target in Armenia (2.8%). Annual inflation was 2.8% in Azerbaijan in May 2019.
  • Monetary policy rate was reduced by 0.25bp to 8.5% in Azerbaijan, by 0.25bp to 7.5% in Russia and has remained unchanged in other countries as of 18 June 2019.
  • Moody’s downgraded the sovereign credit rating of Turkey to B1 from Ba3 keeping negative outlook on 14 June 2019.


Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.


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Georgia's Tourism Sector - Tourism Market Watch | May 2019

6 June, 2019

International visitors (tourists and same-day combined) surged 14.2% y/y to 0.6mn persons in May-19 after 1.9% y/y growth in 4M19. This growth was predominantly driven by 18.0% y/y increase in tourist arrivals, while same-day arrivals also increased 6.7% y/y. Arrivals from Russia topped the list being the largest source of visitor growth (+53.2% y/y), followed by Armenia (+15.4% y/y) and Kazakhstan (+84.6% y/y). Visitors from the EU were up 19.3% y/y to over 46k visitors, with Germany and Poland driving growth.

From non-traditional markets visitors were pronounced from Israel, like in previous months. From major source markets, visitors from Turkey continued to fall for 9th consecutive month. Arrivals from Iran more than halved (down since Jun-18 with the exception of Nov-18). Tourism generated US$ 295mn revenues in May-19 by our estimates, up 19.9% y/y.

We expect tourist arrivals to continue strong growth in 2H19, due to high season and fading effect of reduced visitors from Iran and Turkey.

Please see the full note here, which brings together tourist arrival data for reporting month, most recent statistical information available in the sector and 2019 forecast.


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Regional Fixed Income Market Watch | April 2019

16 May, 2019

Highlights

  • Real GDP in the US grew at a 3.2% annualized rate (initial estimate) in 1Q19 after 2.2% growth in 4Q18. Unemployment rate was 3.6% in April 2019, down from 3.8% in previous month.
  • EU19 real GDP growth was 1.2% y/y in 1Q19 same as in 4Q18. Unemployment rate in EU19 was 7.7% in March 2019, down from 7.8% in February 2019.
  • Chinese economy increased by 6.4% y/y in 1Q19.
  • In March 2019, economic growth was 6.2% y/y in Armenia, 6.0% y/y in Georgia, 5.3% y/y in Kazakhstan and -0.1% y/y in Russia, based on preliminary data. In 1Q19, real GDP growth was 3.0% y/y in Azerbaijan, 2.2% in Ukraine and 1.1% y/y in Belarus.
  • Annual inflation in the US was 2.0% in April 2019, up from 1.9% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 1.7% in April 2019, up from 1.4% in March 2019.
  • In April 2019, annual inflation was above the target level in Georgia (4.1%), Russia (5.2%), Belarus (5.5%), Ukraine (8.8%) and Turkey (19.5%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (4.9%), and below the target in Armenia (2.2%).
  • Monetary policy rate was cut by 0.25bps to 8.75% in Azerbaijan, by 0.25bps to 9.0% in Kazakhstan, by 0.5bps to 17.5% in Ukraine and has remained unchanged in other countries in April 2019.
  • In April 2019, S&P affirmed the sovereign credit rating of Georgia at BB- and revised the outlook to positive from stable.

 

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.


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Georgia's Tourism Sector - Tourism Market Watch | April 2019

7 May, 2019

Total international visitors (tourists and same-day combined) to Georgia were up 3.7% y/y to 0.5mn persons in April-19 after growing 4.6% y/y in previous month. This growth was driven by 4.2% y/y increase in tourist arrivals and 3.0% y/y growth in same-day arrivals Russia was the largest source of visitor growth, followed by Armenia and Kazakhstan. Visitors from the EU were up 28.7% y/y to almost 33k visitors, with Germany and Poland driving growth. From non-traditional markets visitors were pronounced from Israel.

From major source markets, visitors from Turkey continued to fall for 8th consecutive month, but with much slower reduction in last two months. Arrivals from Iran more than halved (down since Jun-18 with the exception of Nov-18), and is the major reason behind slowdown in tourist growth figures.

We expect tourist arrival growth to accelerate from 2H19, due to high season and fading effect of reduced visitors from Iran and Turkey.

Please see the full note here, which brings together tourist arrival data for reporting month, most recent statistical information available in the sector and 2019 forecast.


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