Real GDP growth was 6.4% in 3Q25
Georgia’s real GDP increased by 6.4% y/y in 3Q25 according to Geostat, revised slightly downwards from the preliminary estimate of 6.5%. Considering this revision, economic growth stood at 7.6% y/y in 10M25.
By economic sectors, high contributions to the 3Q25 growth came from ICT (+21.1% y/y), education (+20.7% y/y), finance & insurance (+14.7% y/y), public administration (+9.7% y/y), transport & storage (+8.1% y/y), art & entertainment (+13.0% y/y), trade (+3.0% y/y) and hotels & restaurants (+8.4% y/) sectors. Meanwhile, agriculture (-5.4% y/y), mining (-8.7% y/y) and electricity supply (-3.3% y/y) contracted in 3Q25.
We forecast real GDP growth at 7.5% in 2025 and 6.0% in 2026 (see details here).
Goods exports at record US$ 782.3mn in Nov-25
In Nov-25, goods exports surged by 44.2% y/y to a record monthly high of US$ 782.3mn, following a modest 0.4% y/y growth in previous month. Goods imports declined by 1.2% y/y to US$ 1.5bn, after a slight 0.1% y/y rise in previous month. Consequently, the trade deficit narrowed sharply by 27.6% y/y to US$ 675.3mn in Nov-25.
The top 5 exported commodities were cars (+53.1% y/y), precious metals (+231.8% y/y), petroleum (+US$37.0mn y/y), ferro-alloys (+430.1% y/y) and nuts (+89.9% y/y) in Nov-25. A 15.0% of exports were directed to the EU (+117.9% y/y), 67.2% to the CIS (+33.6% y/y) and 17.9% to other countries (+46.3% y/y).
The top 5 imports were cars (-17.5% y/y), petroleum (+37.0% y/y), pharmaceuticals (-1.1% y/y), gases (-20.3% y/y) and phones (+6.5% y/y) in Nov-25.
Overall, in 11M25, the trade deficit widened by 8.7% y/y to US$ 10.0bn, as exports grew by 10.1% y/y to US$ 6.6bn and imports were up by 9.3% y/y, reaching US$ 16.6bn.
Money transfers increased by 11.9% y/y in Nov-25
Money transfers increased by 11.9% y/y to US$ 298.4mn in Nov-25, following a 13.4% y/y growth in previous month. Among the top countries, inflows grew from the EU (+14.5% y/y, 47.0% of total), Russia (+29.3% y/y, 12.9% of total), the USA (+15.5% y/y, 19.4% of total), Israel (+9.8% y/y, 7.9% of total) and Türkiye (+10.1% y/y, 3.1% of total). In contrast, transfers declined from Kazakhstan (-21.7% y/y, 2.1% of total).
Overall, in 11M25, money transfers increased by 7.6% y/y to US$ 3.3bn. We expect money transfers at US$ 3.6bn in 2025 and at US$ 3.8bn in 2026.
NBG kept its key rate unchanged at 8.0%
On 17 December 2025, the NBG kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 8.0%, maintaining a cautious stance amid elevated uncertainty. The NBG indicated that it would proceed with monetary policy normalization only after current one-off factors dissipate and inflation converges to the target level. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 11 February 2026.
