NBG kept its key rate unchanged at 8.0%
On May 7, 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee of the NBG kept its key rate unchanged at 8.0%. This decision reflects a prudent approach given prevailing inflation risks. Specifically, the NBG notes that current global developments are amplifying stagflationary risks, which pose a risk of increased imported inflation for Georgia. In addition, strong domestic demand creates demand-side pressure on prices. According to the NBG’s updated forecast, inflation will temporarily exceed the target rate in 2025, but it will stabilize at around 3.0% in the medium term. At the same time, the NBG raised its economic growth forecast for 2025 to 6.7% from the previous 5.0%. Further changes to the monetary policy rate will depend on updated macroeconomic forecasts and risk analysis, according to the regulator. The next NBG meeting is scheduled for June 18, 2025.
International reserves at US$ 4.5bn in Apr-25
Gross international reserves decreased by 6.1% y/y to US$ 4.5bn in Apr-25, according to NBG. Meanwhile, on a monthly basis, the reserves were up by 4.8% (+US$ 207.6mn). Changes in reserves were attributed to the increase in the value of monetary gold (+US$ 42.9mn m/m) along with the changes in government and/or banking sector FX operations, and likely also to NBG’s FX purchases via BMatch platform (information will be available on 27 May). Notably, as of Apr-25, monetary gold accounted for 16.8% of total international reserves.
Tourism revenues estimated at US$ 300mn in Apr-25
Tourism revenues stood at US$ 300mn in Apr-25, according to our estimates. Overall, in 4M25, tourism revenues came in at US$ 1.1bn (flat y/y), by our estimates.
We forecast tourism revenues to reach US$ 4.5bn in 2025.
