Weak start of 2025 brought correction fears, but Tbilisi’s residential real estate market finished the year with recovered demand and stabilized price growth, though oversupply risks are still on the radar. Early in 2025, political uncertainty and weaker sentiment cooled demand, as many buyers postponed purchases. Apartment sales recovered later in the year as pent-up demand returned, lifting annual sales above 2023–24 levels, though still below the 2022 peak. On the supply side, even with an annual decline driven by a sharp 4Q25 slowdown, permit issuance stayed above 2015–22 healthy levels. Price growth moderated as strong permit issuance in recent years intensified competition, stabilizing price growth rate and pushing developers to offer their most refined inner instalment schemes yet.
In 2026, we expect demand to remain broadly in line with 2025, supported by long-term fundamentals – urbanization, declining household size and attractive yields. Price is expected to have a stable single-digit growth and will largely depend on the supply side – planned large-scale projects and continued high permit issuance could add substantial new stock, limiting room for price growth.
