Rebound in 2025
Batumi’s residential market rebounded in 2025, reversing the 2024 slowdown. Transactions increased across both primary and secondary markets reaching 17,478 apartments (+15.0% y/y) and market size expanded materially at US$ 1.3bn (+23.8% y/y), confirming renewed activity momentum. These results were supported by new large-scale project launches and stronger resale activity with increased housing stock.
Sales from developers – recovery, but not back to peak
On the primary market, based on the real-time data from systematic developers, although sales improved annually in 2025, the market has not returned to the record levels seen in 2023. Primary sales, are still below that peak, while the number of unsold apartments continues to rise and many projects are still in pipeline. In other words, activity improved, but excess supply has not yet been absorbed.
Prices up, yields down
Primary price growth is running ahead of demand, making it difficult to sustain the current growth rate. Primary prices increased faster than secondary prices (9.4% y/y vs 6.9% y/y average growth, respectively), widening the gap between the two markets. At the same time, daily rents (ADR) remained broadly flat at average US$35.6 per day in 2025. As a result, rental yield – key demand driver for investment-led projects – compressed in Batumi from 8.8% in 2024 to 7.4% in 2025, but still remained one of the highest compared to peer cities.
2026 – absorption test
Primary sales in 2026 are expected to remain broadly flat, while secondary market transactions may rise, supported by a larger housing stock and increased activity.
Primary price growth is likely to slow to 4-6% y/y in 2026, down from 9.4% y/y growth posted in 2025. The gap between primary and secondary prices is unlikely to widen further. At the same time, average yield is expected to continue decreasing, amid growing prices and large number of ongoing projects, that are set to be completed in the coming years, adding extra rental stock.
Overall, 2026 presents a more cautious outlook than the 2025 rebound suggested. Several large-scale premium projects are set to launch, adding pressure to an already stretched absorption pipeline. Diversifying buyer base with new markets will be key, as the pace of new supply absorption and resilience of foreign demand will determine whether the market stabilizes or stumbles.
Recent escalation in Iran and related regional tensions pose near-term risk primarily through Israeli buyers – the fastest-growing foreign segment in Batumi at 13% of sales in 2025. However, they tend to seek safe-haven assets during extended instability, and Batumi, already familiar to them, could benefit in medium term.
