Subscribe to our news
Subscribe to:
G&T Team
ResearchResearch Reports Weekly Market Watch

Weekly Market Watch

Trade deficit increased by 39.3% y/y in Aug-22 
In Aug-22, exports increased by 40.4% y/y to US$ 470.6mn, after a 40.3% y/y growth in previous month. Imports growth accelerated up by 39.7% y/y to a record high of US$ 1.2bn in August (growth was 27.3% y/y in Jul-22). As a result, the trade deficit increased markedly by 39.3% y/y to all-time high US$ 743.0mn, after a 17.2% y/y growth in July. Overall, in 8M22, trade deficit was up by 36.2% y/y to US$ 4.8bn, as exports increased by 36.9% y/y to US$ 3.6bn, while imports were up by 36.5 % y/y to US$ 8.4bn.

Money transfers increased by 63.1% y/y in Aug-22
Money transfers increased by 63.1% y/y to US$ 334.3mn in Aug-22, according to NBG, after a 46.8% y/y growth in previous month. From major remitting countries, money transfers increased from Russia (+194.6% y/y accounting for 33.2% of total, part of this funds related to migration), followed by Italy (+8.8% y/y, 10.9% of total), USA (+18.6% y/y, 8.7% of total), Israel (+7.7% y/y, 5.4% of total) and Armenia (+15.2x y/y, 5.1% of total). Meanwhile, transfers continued to reduce from Greece (-2.9% y/y, 5.6% of total) and Turkey (-2.5% y/y, 2.7% of total). Overall, in 8M22 remittances increased by 62.2% y/y to US$ 2.4bn. 

Tourism revenues hit another record high monthly figure in Aug-22
Total international visitors stood at 742,247 persons in Aug-22  – up 178.5%y/y and recovering at 68.3% of 2019 level. This growth was mainly driven by the increase in tourist arrivals up 135.8% y/y and accounting for 77.4% of 2019 level. Recovery in same-day trips also accelerated, up 724.2% y/y, recovering at 47.8% of 2019 level. Most visitors came from Russia (28.7% of total), followed by Armenia (18.7% of total), and Turkey (14.0% of total). 
Notably, tourism revenues hit another record high monthly figure US$ 522.9mn in Aug-22, surpassing 2019 level by 26.7%. Overall, in 8M22 tourist arrivals stood at 2.3mn persons (+155.0% y/y, 65.3% of 8M19 level) and tourism revenues reached US$ 2.1bn (+204.3% y/y, 94.6% of 8M19 level) For more information see here

NBG keeps key rate unchanged at 11.0% 
The NBG kept its key rate unchanged at 11.0% on 14 September 2022 meeting. According to NBG, some positive trends observed on international markets (reduction in oil prices, shipping costs and food prices) expected to be gradually transmitted to the local market and favorably affect the inflation dynamics. In August, inflation in Georgia slowed further to 10.9% and the regulator expects inflation to decline in coming months and gradually approach the target level of 3.0% from the 2H23. The next committee meeting is scheduled for 26 October 2022. 

IMF revised Georgia’s growth forecast up
IMF team visited Georgia in September 8-14, 2022 to discuss recent economic and financial developments and progress on reform priorities. Based on end-of-mission statement: “The Georgian economy is set to achieve strong growth this year despite a challenging external environment. A faster-than-expected recovery of tourism, a surge in inbound money transfers, and immigration-related flows have helped strengthen the external position and sustain domestic demand. Growth projections have been revised up to 9.0% in 2022 as expected negative effects of the war in Ukraine have not materialized so far. The continued strong recovery has reinforced the soundness of the banking sector. Headline inflation has begun to decelerate, although it remains well above the NBG’s target”.