Weekly Market Watch

Unemployment rate stood at 13.8% in 3Q24 
The unemployment rate reduced by 1.8ppts y/y to 13.8% in 3Q24, though it saw a slight increase from 13.7% in 2Q24. During this period, the number of hired employed individuals increased by 3.3% y/y, accounting for 69.2% of total employment, while self-employed persons rose by 2.4% y/y. Notably, labor force participation rate increased by 1.0ppts y/y to 54.7% in 3Q24.
We forecast unemployment rate at 13.8% in 2024, down from 16.4% in 2023.

Goods exports surged by 39.0% y/y in Oct-24 
In Oct-24, goods exports surged by 39.0% y/y to US$ 681.7mn, after a 17.0% y/y growth in previous month. Goods imports increased by 5.8% y/y to US$ 1.4bn, after falling by 0.3% y/y in previous month. Consequently, the trade deficit narrowed by 12.8% y/y to US$ 758.8mn in Oct-24. 
The top 5 exported commodities were cars (+21.3% y/y), ferro-alloys (+25.9x y/y), spirits (+40.8% y/y), precious metals (+19.7x y/y) and wine (-5.2% y/y) in Oct-24. A 9.7% of exports were directed to the EU (+41.3% y/y), 62.8% to the CIS (+19.2% y/y) and 27.4% to other countries (+122.2% y/y). 
The top 5 imports were cars (-11.1% y/y), petroleum (-3.6% y/y), pharmaceuticals (-5.4% y/y), phones (+7.0% y/y) and gases (-6.1% y/y) and in Oct-24. 
Overall, in 10M24, trade deficit widened by 3.1% y/y to US$ 8.1bn, as exports increased by 7.4% y/y to US$ 5.5bn and imports were up by 4.8% y/y to US$ 13.6bn.

Producer price index increased by 6.8% y/y in Oct-24
Annual PPI for industrial goods retreated to 6.8% in Oct-24, from 8.8% in the previous month. The annual growth was mainly driven by a rise in prices in the manufacturing (+5.3% y/y) and mining (+29.7% y/y) sectors.