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G&T Team
ResearchResearch Reports Weekly Market Watch

Weekly Market Watch

GDP recalculation – growth revised upwards
Geostat revised historical series of GDP and other macroeconomic indicators as recommended by international organizations such as the IMF and Eurostat. Based on this recalculation, real GDP growth, nominal GDP, and per capita GDP are higher in the new series compared to the old series for every single year from 2010 to 2023. The Real GDP growth rate was revised upwards to 7.5% in 2023 from the 7.0% recorded in the old series, with real GDP growth averaging 9.7% during 2021-23 in the new series compared to 9.3% in the old series. The only downward revision to the real growth rate was recorded in 2014: 4.1% in the new series versus 4.4% in the old series. The expansion in nominal GDP improves debt indicators, creating fresh borrowing space.
Based on this recalculation, we anticipate growth to reach 6.0% in 2024 in our baseline scenario, compared to the 5.4% projection before this recalculation.

Tourism revenues estimated at US$ 300mn in Jan-24
Tourism revenues reached US$ 300mn (+26.6% y/y, excluding migration effect) in Jan-24, according to our estimates. 
We forecast tourism revenues at US$ 4.5bn (+10.0% y/y) for 2024, assuming that international visits to Georgia will fully recover to pre-pandemic levels. 

International reserves at US$ 4.9bn in Jan-24 
Gross international reserves decreased by 0.9% y/y to US$ 4.9bn in Jan-24, according to NBG. On a monthly basis, the reserves reduced by 3.1% (-US$ 156.4mn). Changes in reserves were attributed to the government and banking sector FX operations.