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G&T Team
ResearchResearch Reports Navigating 2024 - Georgia's economic outlook and key sector overview

Navigating 2024 - Georgia's economic outlook and key sector overview

Navigating 2024 - Georgia's economic outlook and key sector overview

Georgia continues to enjoy strong growth. The reduction in inflation should allow the refinancing rate to be cut further in 2024. Solid external inflows allow us to expect stability of GEL. Georgia has a strong growth outlook as the country starts 2024 on a high note, having achieved EU candidacy status, bolstering consumer and business confidence.

5.4% GDP growth in 2024 with potential upside 
In 2023, Georgia's GDP continued its solid growth, expanding by 7.0% in 10M23. The primary driver of this growth was investments, with solid external inflows also playing a significant role. We expect growth of 5.4% in 2024 and see upside potential for 6.0% growth.

100bps rate cut in 2024 
Inflation fell sharply in 2023, enabling the central bank to cut key rate by 150bps to 9.5%. We expect inflation to remain close to the target and anticipate average inflation at 3.5% in 2024. This will allow the central bank to cut key rate by 100bps to 8.5% by the end of 2024.

Appreciation potential for GEL in 2024 
The expected solid external inflows and low current account deficit lead us to expect the GEL to remain stable at around 2.7 against the dollar and 3.0 against the Euro in 2024. We do not rule out a 2% appreciation of the GEL in our upside scenario.