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G&T Team
ResearchResearch Reports Georgian Economy - Key macro themes in focus

Georgian Economy - Key macro themes in focus

Georgian economy performed strongly in 2022 as expected adverse impact from Russia’s war in Ukraine did not materialize. War-related immigration, a surge in financial inflows, a rebound in investments and a rise in cargo transit strengthened growth and the GEL. Inflation has remained high despite easing at end-22, reflecting strong domestic demand and increased housing rents, on top of persistent food price pressures. We expect growth momentum to continue and forecast close-to-potential growth at 4.8% in 2023 and 5.0% in 2024.

Key economic themes in 2023
Amid geopolitical tensions, uncertainty surrounding growth outlook remains high. In this report we consider key themes for 2023:

1.    2023 baseline growth forecast and alternative scenarios
2.    Inflation and monetary policy rate
3.    Exchange rate
4.    War-related flows
5.    Real estate market
6.    Cargo transportation 
7.    Labor market and wages
8.    Debt sustainability in high interest rate environment.