Commodities Monthly Outlook - October 2024

In October 2024,

Brent oil price was up 1.9% m/m. Over the month traders assessed potential effects of Middle East conflict, OPEC+ supply cuts, and US elections on the oil price.

Natural gas price was down 6.9% m/m. Gas prices in Europe fell sharply after a Bloomberg report suggested that European buyers were close to a deal with Azerbaijan to maintain gas flows through Ukraine. However, other sources later denied this information.

Gold price was up 4.2% m/m. Rally of the precious metal continued over the month, reaching new all-time high of almost US$2,790 per troy ounce. Notably, this time around, retail and institutional investors fueled the gains instead of the central banks.

Ammonium nitrate price was down 1.0% m/m. Global fertilizer demand remains subdued, with no significant growth compared to the previous year.

Wheat price was up 13.8% m/m. France has already recorded its worst wheat harvest in decades and the pain is likely to be felt in the next season too.

Copper price was down 3.3% m/m. Weak global economic activity and strengthening US dollar still puts significant pressure on prices.

Ferrosilicon - European ferrosilicon price was down 4.1% m/m, while its Chinese counterpart stayed constant at US$1,285 per ton.