Commodities Monthly Outlook - August 2024

In August 2024:

Brent oil price was down 2.4% m/m. The month saw sharp price volatility with bullish and bearish sentiments swapping dominance.

Natural gas price was up 13.1% m/m. The rally was driven by several key factors including the war in Russia, increasing demand in Egypt, and maintenance in Norway, all potentially affecting the supply of Europe.

Gold price was up 2.3% m/m. Gold breaking above another record-high price became usual news in recent months, settling above $2,500 per troy ounce for the first time in August. However, this time around it is a little different.

Ammonium nitrate price was up 7.6% m/m. Global fertilizer supply especially that of urea face notable constraints as the exports from China remains limited due to government decision.

Wheat price was up 1.0% m/m. Prices remain 19.2% lower than the beginning of the year, but the effects of bad weather is slowly taking over.

Copper price was up 0.2% m/m. Despite the marginal gain, outlook for the red metal looks gloomy. Goldman Sachs, its biggest supporter has exited a long-term buy position on copper and reduced its forecasted price from $15,000 per ton to $10,100 for next year.

Ferrosilicon - European ferrosilicon price was down 1.6% m/m, while its Chinese counterpart lost 0.8% m/m. Much like other metals, slump in ferrosilicon prices is induced by the weak Chinese economy.