Commodities Monthly Outlook - August 2023
In August 2023:
Brent oil price increased by 1.5% m/m. After a rally in July and early August, which was triggered by Saudi Arabia and Russia announcing production cuts, crude oil prices stabilized at around US$ 85 throughout August.
Natural gas price was up 12.0% m/m. Europe is facing alarm over volatile natural gas prices, primarily driven by outages in Australia, a key liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter.
Ammonium nitrate price was up 26.3% m/m, reaching the highest level since Mar-23. This rise is driven by volatile natural gas prices in Europe, a key input for fertilizer production.
Wheat price was up 2.2% m/m. Uncertainty in wheat supplies continues from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and suspension of Black Sea Grain Deal.
Copper price was down 4.5% m/m. Copper prices fluctuated recently, rising initially due to hopes of Chinese (largest copper consumer) stimulus but later falling amid weaker-than expected Chinese data and a stronger US dollar.
Ferrosilicon prices - Chinese and European - were further down by 2.9% and 3.6% m/m, respectively, showing no signs of reversal in price trends.
Gold price was down 1.3% m/m. Gold currently trades near $1,940 per ounce, with forecasts ranging around US$ 2,000-2,100 to some predicting it could even reach a record $2,250 per ounce.