TTTT: Two Triggers – Tariffs & Trillions
Markets are now eyeing two key US events in July: the July 9 expiry of Trump’s 90‑day tariff pause – dubbed “Liberation Day” – and the rollout of the Senate-passed “One Big Beautiful Bill” (BBB). Unless extended, tariffs could snap back, pressuring global trade, while BBB’s $3.3 trillion deficit boost may tip the scales in favor of higher Treasury yields. The coming weeks may offer clearer signals on how these risks will feed through to rates.
Regional markets
In regional sovereign Eurobond markets yields on all securities declined. Georgia’s Eurobond showed the largest move, lowering its yield by 80bps. Kazakhstan’s gave 54bps, while Turkey’s decreased by 43bps.
Georgian market
In June 2025, Energy Development Georgia issued a new 2-year USD 10mn bond (8.50% coupon). Notably, it was a rollover of a previous 2-year bond.
Alma is set to issue a new 2-year bond in July in two currencies. Coupon is expected to be between 8.00-8.50% for USD issuance, and between 7.00-7.50% for EUR issuance.
