Annual inflation at 4.8% in Jan-26
In January 2026, Georgia’s annual inflation increased to 4.8% from 4.0% posted in previous month. The rise was driven by an acceleration in prices of domestically produced goods and service, up to 7.0% y/y from 6.2% y/y in Dec-25, alongside a pickup in mixed-goods inflation to 5.5% y/y (vs. 4.1% y/y in Dec-25). In contrast, imported goods prices continued to post marginal deflation of -0.1% y/y (vs. -0.2% y/y in Dec-25). Notably, core inflation – excluding food, energy, and tobacco – also increased to 2.1% y/y in Jan-26 from 1.6% in previous month.
By categories, annual inflation in Jan-26 was largely driven by price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (+10.6% y/y, +3.55ppts), healthcare (+8.3% y/y, +0.68ppts), hotels and restaurants (+8.1% y/y, +0.26ppts) and alcoholic beverages & tobacco (+3.5% y/y, +0.23ppts) categories. Meanwhile, deflation was recorded in communication (-4.6% y/y, -0.15ppts), recreation & culture (-2.5% y/y, -0.10ppts) and clothing and footwear (-1.8% y/y, -0.08ppts).
We forecast average annual inflation at 3.0% in 2026.
International reserves at US$ 6.3bn in Jan-26
Gross international reserves increased by 42.0% y/y to US$ 6.3bn in Jan-26, according to NBG. On a monthly basis, the reserves rose by 2.3% (+US$ 140.9mn). Changes in reserves were attributed to the changes in the value of monetary gold (+US$ 140.9mn m/m) along with the government and/or banking sector FX operations, and likely the NBG’s FX trading via BMatch platform (information will be available on 25 February). Notably, as of Jan-26, monetary gold accounted for 18.1% of total international reserves.
Tourism revenues estimated at US$ 325mn in Jan-26
Tourism revenues increased by 13.4% y/y to US$ 325mn in Jan-26, according to our estimates.
We forecast tourism revenues at US$ 5.0bn in 2026.
