Real GDP increased by 8.4% y/y in Jan-23
Economy expanded by a robust 8.4% y/y in Jan-23, from last year’s high base of 18.0% y/y. In January, construction, financial, transportation and storage, trade, ICT and hospitality sectors drove the growth. Meanwhile, manufacturing, professional activities and energy sectors contracted. Our 2023 baseline growth forecast is 4.8%; If positive momentum of GDP growth continues in the coming months, the likelihood of achieving our optimistic growth scenario of 6.9% for 2023 will increase (see here for more details).
Inflation retreated to 8.1% in Feb-23
Annual CPI inflation retreated to 8.1% in Feb-23 from a 9.4% inflation in previous month. Core inflation (non-food, non-energy, and non-tobacco) also reduced to 6.6% (-1.2ppts m/m) in February. By categories, annual inflation was mostly driven by price changes in food and non-alcoholic beverages (+14.0% y/y, 4.73ppts), housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+12.4% y/y, 1.30ppts), restaurants and hotels (+14.8% y/y, 0.58ppts), furnishings, household equipment and maintenance (+10.1% y/y, 0.51ppts), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+7.3% y/y, 0.49ppts) categories. On a monthly basis, there was a 0.3% deflation in Feb-23, driven by price reduction in healthcare (-4.9% m/m, -0.47ppts) and transport (-1.5% y/y, -0.19ppts) categories. We expect average annual inflation at 5.2% in 2023 down from 11.9% in 2022 and see inflation close to the target by end-23, in our baseline scenario.
Tourism revenues stood at US$ 307.0mn in Feb-23
According to our estimates, tourism revenues continued strong growth up by 191.8% y/y, reaching US$ 307.0mn in Feb-23. Overall, tourism revenues reached US$ 607.0mn (+176.9% y/y) in 2M23, based on our estimate.
