Unemployment rate was 15.6% in 3Q23
The unemployment rate reduced to 15.6% in 3Q23, down from 16.7% in previous quarter. This decline was attributed to solid economic activity, particularly increased involvement in the seasonal hospitality sector. During 3Q23, the number of hired employed individuals increased by 2.9% q/q (+3.2% y/y), accounting for 69.0% of total employment, while self-employed persons were up 3.1% q/q (-4.8% y/y) and accounted for 31.0% of total. Labor force participation rate stood at 53.6% in 3Q23, up from 53.2% in the previous quarter, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
We forecast unemployment rate at 16.6% for the full year 2023, down from 17.3% in 2022.
Producer price index declined by 0.8% y/y in Oct-23
Annual PPI for industrial goods declined by 0.8% in Oct-23, after falling by 3.3% in previous month, according to Geostat. Notably, on a monthly basis, there was a 1.8% increase in the PPI for Oct-23 (vs. +0.6% m/m in Sep-23). This monthly growth was primarily driven by a rise in prices in the manufacturing sector (+1.8% m/m), followed by electricity supply (+4.2% m/m). This trend will be likely reflected in CPI inflation in the coming months.
Goods exports growth accelerated in Oct-23
In Oct-23, goods exports growth accelerated, rising by 10.3% y/y to US$ 494.9mn, after a 0.9% y/y growth in previous month. Meanwhile, Goods imports growth slowed to 3.3% y/y, reaching US$ 1.2bn in October, after growing by 11.1% y/y in September. Consequently, the trade deficit declined by 0.9% y/y to US$ 748.4mn, marking the first decrease since February 2021.
The top 5 exported commodities were cars (+176.8% y/y), wine (-13.6% y/y), spirits (+47.6% y/y), pharmaceuticals (+5.6% y/y) and nuts (-8.8% y/y), in Oct-23. A 9.5% of exports were directed to the EU (-55.2% y/y), 72.6% to the CIS (+57.2% y/y) and 17.9% to other countries (-23.3% y/y).
The top 5 imports were cars (-1.5% y/y), petroleum (-1.0% y/y), pharmaceuticals (+57.3% y/y), gases (+24.8% y/y) and phones (+0.2% y/y) in Oct-23. Notably, on aggregate level, capital goods imports has been growing since Mar-21, which is positive for sustainable economic growth. During January-October, 2023 capital goods imports increased by 21.8% y/y.
Overall, in 10M23, trade deficit increased by 21.7% y/y to US$ 7.6bn, as exports increased by 12.5% y/y to US$ 5.1bn, while imports were up by 17.8% y/y to US$ 12.7bn.
