Annual inflation was 0.5% in Mar-24
In Mar-24, annual inflation slightly increased to 0.5%, following a 0.3% inflation in previous month. Similar to the previous month, the inflation observed in March was primarily driven by a 4.1% y/y decline in food prices and a 8.1% y/y increase in prices in the transport category. Notably, domestically produced goods and services prices and imported inflation increased by 2.6% y/y (+2.4% in Feb-24) and 1.6% y/y (+0.2% y/y in Feb-24), respectively in March. Meanwhile, mixed goods inflation reduced by 3.9% y/y (-3.3% y/y in Feb-24). Core inflation, excluding volatile food, energy and tobacco slightly reduced to 2.3% y/y in Mar-24, after a 2.4% y/y inflation posted in previous month.
By categories, annual inflation in Mar-24 was mostly driven by price changes in food and non-alcoholic beverages (-3.4% y/y, -1.17ppts), transport (+8.1% y/y, +0.98ppts), alcoholic beverages & tobacco (+4.5% y/y, +0.31ppts), clothing and footwear (-5.0% y/y, -0.21ppts), hotels & restaurants (+6.3% y/y, +0.20ppts) and education (+3.6% y/y, +0.16ppts) categories.
We forecast average annual inflation at 3.0% for 2024.
Tourism revenues estimated at US$ 305mn in Mar-24
Tourism revenues increased by 10.2% y/y to US$ 305mn in Mar-24, according to our estimates. Overall, in 1Q24 tourism revenues reached US$879mn (+10.6% y/y) by our estimates.
We forecast tourism revenues at US$ 4.5bn (+10.0% y/y) for 2024.
