Real GDP growth was 11.0% y/y in Oct-24
Georgia’s economic growth accelerated, up by 11.0% in Oct-24, after growing by 8.3% in previous month. Cumulatively, real GDP growth came in at 10.0% in 10M24. In October, real growth was recorded in the construction, manufacturing, financial & insurance, ICT, transport and trade sectors. Considering stronger-than-expected growth in 10M24, we forecast 9.7% real GDP growth for full-2024.
Bank lending increased by 18.6% y/y in Oct-24
In Oct-24, the banking sector loan portfolio increased by 18.6% y/y (+1.4% m/m), excluding FX effect, after a 18.8% y/y growth in previous month. In unadjusted terms, loan portfolio rose by 19.8% y/y (+1.2% m/m), reaching GEL 60.1bn (US$ 21.9bn), after growing 20.8% y/y in Sep-24. By sector, corporate loans grew by 20.1% y/y (excluding FX effect), while retail loans increased by 17.4% y/y. Loan dollarization stood at 43.3% (-1.91ppts y/y and -0.63ppts m/m) in Oct-24.
On the deposits side, there was a 14.2% y/y increase (excluding FX effect) to GEL 57.5bn (US$ 20.9bn) in Oct-24, following a 15.1% y/y growth in the previous month. In terms of currency breakdown, GEL deposits growth slowed further to 14.6% y/y (+20.1% y/y in Sep-24), while FX deposits (exc. FX effect) growth accelerated to 13.9% y/y (+10.2% y/y in Sep-24). Consequently, deposit dollarization increased to 50.7% (+0.37ppts y/y and +1.91ppts m/m) in Oct-24.
NBG sold US$ 591.1mn in Oct-24
In Oct-24, the NBG intervened in the FX market by selling US$ 591.1mn to mitigate sell-off pressure on the GEL due election-related uncertainties. Overall, the NBG was a net seller of US$ 587.9mn in 10M24.
