Annual inflation was 0.3% y/y in Feb-24
In Feb-24, annual inflation came in at 0.3%, following zero inflation in previous month. The inflation observed in February was primarily driven, on one hand, by a 3.1% y/y decline in mixed goods prices and, on the other hand, by a 2.4% y/y inflation in domestically produced goods. However, the latter exhibits a deceleration trend. Notably, imported inflation turned positive in February (+0.2% y/y) for the first time since Feb-23. Core inflation, excluding volatile food, energy and tobacco stood at 2.4% y/y in Feb-24.
By categories, annual inflation in Feb-24 was mostly driven by price changes in food and non-alcoholic beverages (-3.5% y/y, -1.20ppts), transport (+4.8% y/y, +0.61ppts), alcoholic beverages & tobacco (+5.5% y/y, +0.37ppts), healthcare (+2.5% y/y, +0.22ppts), hotels & restaurants (+6.7% y/y, +0.21ppts) categories.
We forecast average annual inflation at 3.0% for 2024.
Tourism revenues estimated at US$ 275mn in Feb-24
Tourism revenues increased by 14.4% y/y to US$ 275mn (+34.6% y/y, excluding migration effect) in Feb-24, according to our estimates. Overall, in 2M24 tourism revenues reached US$574mn (+10.7% y/y) by our estimates.
We forecast tourism revenues at US$ 4.5bn (+10.0% y/y) for 2024.
International reserves at US$ 4.7bn in Feb-24
Gross international reserves increased by 0.6% y/y to US$ 4.7bn in Feb-24, according to NBG. Meanwhile, on a monthly basis, the reserves reduced by 2.2% (-US$ 106.9mn). Changes in reserves were attributed to the government and banking sector FX operations.
