Nominal wages up 15.3% y/y in 4Q23
In 4Q23, average monthly nominal wages in Georgia increased by 15.3% y/y (+14.8% in real terms, adjusted for a sharp reduction in annual inflation) to GEL 2,045, after growing by 16.3% y/y in 3Q23, according to Geostat. By economic activity, the highest monthly average wages were observed in the following sectors: information and communication (GEL 4,309, +17.3% y/y), financial and insurance (GEL 3,110, +14.1% y/y) and construction (GEL 3,063, +20.8% y/y). The lowest average monthly wages were in education (GEL 1,157, +15.0% y/y), water supply (GEL 1,320, +16.1% y/y) and agriculture (GEL 1,463, +24.1% y/y) in 4Q23.
On average, monthly nominal wages were up by 20.4% y/y in 2023, after a 18.3% y/y growth in 2022.
Real GDP growth was 6.9% in 4Q23
Georgia’s real GDP increased by 6.9% y/y in 4Q23 according to Geostat, revised slightly upwards from the preliminary estimate of 6.8%. Overall, Georgia’s economy grew by 7.5% y/y in 2023. Notably, Nominal GDP increased by 10.1% y/y to GEL 80.2bn (US$ 30.5bn). With high economic growth and the GEL’s appreciation, GDP per capita increased by 22.0% y/y, reaching US$ 8,210 in 2023.
By economic sectors, high contributions to the 2023 growth came from trade (+13.6% y/y), construction (+17.2% y/y), ICT (+27.4% y/), public administration (+13.7% y/y), transportation & storage (+13.3% y/y) and education (+18.9% y/y). Meanwhile, healthcare (-15.4% y/y), real estate (-2.5% y/y) and agriculture (-2.8% y/y) sectors contracted in 2023.
For 2024, we forecast real GDP to grow by 6.0% in our baseline scenario and by 7.0% in upside scenario.
Goods exports increased by 2.0% y/y in Feb-24
In Feb-24, goods exports increased by 2.0% y/y to US$ 464.7mn, after falling 26.2% y/y in previous month. Similarly, goods imports also increased by 4.4% y/y to US$ 1.1bn in February, following a 7.5% y/y reduction in previous month. Consequently, the trade deficit increased by 6.3% y/y to US$ 650.6mn in Feb-24.
The top 5 exported commodities were cars (+13.6% y/y), wine (+58.8% y/y), ferro-alloys (+8.6% y/y), spirits (+93.6% y/y) and precious metals (+87.0% y/y) in Feb-24. A 8.7% of exports were directed to the EU (-4.1% y/y), 66.6% to the CIS (+21.3% y/y) and 24.7% to other countries (-27.6% y/y).
The top 5 imports were cars (-36.3% y/y), petroleum (+40.5% y/y), gases (-30.4% y/y), pharmaceuticals (-11.8% y/y) and phones (+5.7% y/y) in Feb-24.
Overall, in 2M24, trade deficit expanded by 5.9% y/y to US$ 1.3bn, as exports decreased by 12.2% y/y to US$ 803.3mn and imports were down by 1.6% y/y to US$ 2.1bn.
Producer price index increased by 2.0% y/y in Feb-24
Annual PPI for industrial goods increased by 2.0% in Feb-24, posting growth for the first time since Jan-23, according to Geostat, after falling by 0.7% y/y in previous month. On a monthly basis, there was a 1.4% increase in the PPI for Feb-24. This monthly growth was primarily driven by a rise in prices in the manufacturing sector (+1.6% m/m), followed by electricity supply (+1.1% m/m).
