Unemployment rate was 13.9% in 2024
The unemployment rate reduced by 2.5ppts y/y to a historical low level of 13.9% in 2024, amid robust economic growth. During this period, the number of hired employed individuals increased by 4.3% y/y, accounting for 68.5% of total employment, while self-employed persons rose by 6.7% y/y. Notably, labor force participation rate increased by 1.5ppts y/y to 54.8% in 2024.
We forecast unemployment rate at 13.5% in 2025.
Money transfers at US$ 242.4mn in Jan-25
Money transfers decreased by 8.5% y/y to US$ 242.4mn in Jan-25, after a 8.2% y/y decline in previous month. Among the top countries, money transfers increased from the EU (+7.8% y/y, 46.5% of total), the USA (+23.2% y/y, 19.5% of total), Israel (+19.1% y/y, 8.8% of total) and Kyrgyzstan (+126.2% y/y, 2.5% of total) in January. In contrast, transfers reduced from Russia (-62.4% y/y, 10.5% of total) and Kazakhstan (-49.5% y/y, 2.0% of total).
We forecast money transfers at US$ 3.2bn in 2025, down from US$ 3.4bn in 2024.
Goods exports increased by 19.3% y/y in Jan-25
In Jan-25, goods exports increased by 19.3% y/y to US$ 403.9mn, after a 6.8% y/y growth in previous month. Goods imports grew by 45.5% y/y to US$ 1.6bn, following a 22.2% y/y growth in previous month. Consequently, the trade deficit increased by 57.2% y/y to US$ 1.2bn in Jan-25.
The top 5 exported commodities were cars (+16.0% y/y), spirits (+10.2% y/y), copper (+US$ 13.8mn y/y), mineral waters (+46.6% y/y) and wine (-28.0% y/y) in Jan-25. A 13.2% of exports were directed to the EU (+45.9% y/y), 64.2% to the CIS (+15.8% y/y) and 22.6% to other countries (+16.7% y/y).
The top 5 imports were paintings/drawings (+US$481.1mn y/y), cars (-23.1% y/y), petroleum (+32.9% y/y), gases (+8.7% y/y) and pharmaceuticals (-20.2% y/y) in Jan-25.
Producer price index increased by 7.2% y/y in Jan-25
Annual PPI for industrial goods increased by 7.2% in Jan-25, after a 7.9% y/y rise in previous month. The annual growth was mainly driven by an increase in prices in the manufacturing sector (+6.1% y/y), followed by mining (+24.1% y/y) and electricity supply (+8.0% y/y) sectors.
