IMF updates world economic outlook
On 22 April 2025, the IMF released an updated global economic outlook. In baseline scenario IMF projects global growth at 2.8% in 2025, a decrease of 0.5ppts from its previous estimate. This decline is mainly due to new tariff measures introduced by the US and countermeasures from its trading partners, which have raised effective tariff rates to levels not seen in a century. The IMF also forecasts global headline inflation to decline at a slightly slower pace compared to previous forecast, reaching 4.3% in 2025, down from 5.7% in 2024. For Georgia, the IMF maintains its growth forecast at 6.0% for 2025.
International visitors at 1.2mn in 1Q25
In 1Q25, international visitors to Georgia increased by 1.3% y/y to 1.2mn persons. This growth was mainly driven by a 2.2% y/y increase in tourist arrivals, which accounted for 81.8% of total arrivals. Meanwhile, same-day arrivals fell by 2.4% y/y in the same period. Visitors from Israel (+72.9% y/y) were the main contributors to the total arrival growth, followed by Azerbaijan (+25.9% y/y, despite the Azeri land border remaining closed for travel-related purposes) and India (+27.7% y/y). In contrast, overall arrivals growth was negatively affected by declines in visitors from Türkiye (-11.5% y/y) and Armenia (-5.7% y/y). Notably, most visitors traveled to Georgia via land (56.3% of total), followed by air (42.9% of total).
Based on NBG’s estimate, tourism revenues increased by 2.3% y/y to US$ 826.0mn in 1Q25. We forecast tourism revenues at US$ 4.5bn for 2025 (see details in the tourism market watch here).
Bank lending increased by 16.6% y/y in Mar-25
In Mar-25, the banking sector loan portfolio increased by 16.6% y/y (+1.7% m/m), excluding FX effect, after a 17.4% y/y growth in previous month. In unadjusted terms, loan portfolio rose by 17.9% y/y (+1.3% m/m), reaching GEL 63.4bn (US$ 22.9bn), after growing 19.8% y/y in Feb-25. By sector, corporate loans grew by 17.9% y/y (excluding FX effect), while retail loans increased by 15.5% y/y. Loan dollarization stood at 43.1% (flat m/m and -1.70ppts y/y) in Mar-25.
On the deposits side, there was a 11.3% y/y increase (excluding FX effect) to GEL 58.5bn (US$ 21.1bn) in Mar-25, after a 11.8% y/y growth in previous month. In terms of currency breakdown, GEL deposits grew by 5.9% y/y (+7.4% y/y in Feb-25) and FX deposits (exc. FX effect) increased by 16.7% y/y (+16.3% y/y in Feb-25). As a result, deposit dollarization reduced by -0.35ppts m/m to 52.8% in Mar-25, but it is still up 3.10ppts y/y.
NBG purchased US$ 101.7mn in Mar-25
In Mar-25, GEL appreciation trend enabled the NBG to intervene in the FX market by purchasing US$ 101.7mn and build FX reverses. In 2024, the NBG was a net seller of US$ 434.8mn.
Producer price index increased by 5.5% y/y in Mar-25
Annual PPI for industrial goods increased by 5.5% in Mar-25, after a 6.1% rise in previous month. The annual growth was mainly driven by an increase in prices in the manufacturing sector (+4.3% y/y), followed by mining (+22.3% y/y).
