Real GDP growth was 8.3% y/y in Sep-24
Georgia’s economy grew by 8.3% in Sep-24, after growing by 12.0% in previous month. Cumulatively, real GDP growth came in at 9.8% in 9M24. In September, real growth was recorded in the construction, financial & insurance, transport and trade sectors. Meanwhile, the energy sector contracted in September. We are maintaining our real GDP growth forecast at 9.0% for 2024 and 6.0% for 2025 (see latest macro forecasts here).
Bank lending increased by 18.8% y/y in Sep-24
In Sep-24, the banking sector loan portfolio increased by 18.8% y/y (+2.2% m/m), excluding FX effect, after a 18.6% y/y growth in previous month. In unadjusted terms, loan portfolio rose by 20.8% y/y (+2.9% m/m), reaching GEL 59.4bn (US$ 21.8bn), after growing 20.1% y/y in Aug-24. By sector, corporate loans grew by 21.3% y/y (excluding FX effect), while retail loans increased by 16.7% y/y. Loan dollarization stood at 43.9% (-1.09ppts y/y and flat m/m) in Sep-24.
On the deposits side, there was a 15.1% y/y increase (excluding FX effect) to GEL 57.6bn (US$ 21.1bn) in Sep-24, following a 15.3% y/y growth in the previous month. In terms of currency breakdown, GEL deposits growth slightly slowed to 20.1% y/y (+21.2% y/y in Aug-24), while FX deposits (exc. FX effect) growth accelerated to 10.2% y/y (+9.3% y/y in Aug-24). Consequently, deposit dollarization increased to 48.8% (-1.39ppts y/y and +0.97ppts m/m) in Sep-24.
Tourism revenues at US$ 1.6bn in 3Q24
Tourism revenues increased by 8.0% y/y to US$ 1.6bn in 3Q24, according to NBG. Overall, in 9M24 tourism revenues reached US$ 3.5bn (+6.5% y/y). We forecast tourism revenues at US$ 4.4bn for 2024, up from US$ 4.1bn in 2023.
