Annual inflation was 0.3% in Oct-24
In Oct-24, annual inflation was 0.3%, down from 0.6% posted in September. This slowdown was mainly driven by a decrease in imported inflation (-1.5% y/y, down from +1.4% y/y in the previous month), followed by a 0.6% y/y decline in mixed goods inflation (-1.1% y/y in Sep-24). Meanwhile, inflation for domestically produced goods and services accelerated, increasing by 1.8% y/y in Oct-24, following a 1.2% y/y increase in previous month. Notably, core inflation, excluding volatile food, energy and tobacco prices, rose to 1.2% y/y in Oct-24 from 0.8% y/y in September.
By categories, annual inflation in Oct-24 was largely driven by price changes in hotels & restaurants (+7.6% y/y, +0.26ppts), education (+5.0% y/y, +0.25ppts), alcoholic beverages & tobacco (+3.3% y/y, +0.22ppts), utilities (-3.0% y/y, -0.25ppts), and communication (-12.7% y/y, -0.47ppts) categories.
On a monthly basis, there was a 0.3% y/y inflation in Oct-24, mainly due to rising prices in clothing and footwear (+6.7% m/m, +0.25ppts) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.4% m/m, +0.15ppts) categories. Meanwhile, prices in transport (-1.4% m/m, -0.18ppts) category dropped in October.
Tourism revenues estimated at US$ 390mn in Oct-24
Tourism revenues increased by 6.7% y/y to US$ 390mn in Oct-24, according to our estimates. Overall, in 10M24 tourism revenues reached US$ 3.9bn (+6.5% y/y) by our estimates. We forecast tourism revenues at US$ 4.4bn for 2024, up from US$ 4.1bn in 2023.
International reserves at US$ 4.1bn in Oct-24
Gross international reserves decreased by 20.2% y/y to US$ 4.1bn in Oct-24, according to NBG. On a monthly basis, the reserves were down by 13.3% (-US$ 627.5mn). In October, the NBG conducted 4 FX auctions, selling US$ 213.4mn to support the GEL amid pre-election pressures. Other changes in reserves were attributed to the government and/or banking sector FX operations, and likely also to NBG’s FX trading via BMatch platform (information will be available on 25 November). Notably, as of Oct-24, monetary gold accounted for 15.4% of total international reserves.
