Highlights

  • US GDP growth in 3Q17 was revised down to an annualized 3.2% y/y (3rd estimate) from an annualized 3.3% y/y (2nd estimate). GDP growth in EU19 was 2.6% y/y in 3Q17. The Turkish economy grew 11.1% y/y in 3Q17, from a low base in 3Q16 (-0.8% y/y), reflecting increases in private consumption and investment expenditures.
  • Based on rapid estimates, economic growth in November 2017 came in at 9.2% y/y in Armenia, 3.7% y/y in Georgia, and 2.3% y/y in Kazakhstan. In 11M17, GDP was up 2.2% y/y in Belarus and down 0.2% y/y in Azerbaijan.
  • Annual inflation in the US was up to 2.2% in November 2017 from 2.0% in the previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was down to 1.4% in December 2017 from 1.5% in November 2017.
  • In December 2017, annual inflation decreased in Turkey (11.9%), Georgia (6.7%), and Kazakhstan (7.1%) and increased in Armenia (2.6%). In Russia inflation remained unchanged at 2.5% in December 2017. November 2017 figures indicate a decrease in annual inflation to 13.6% in Ukraine and 10.5% in Azerbaijan and an increase to 4.9% in Belarus.
  • In December 2017, in response to increased inflation expectations, the Georgian and Ukrainian central banks raised monetary policy rates further to 7.25% and 14.5%, respectively, while the Russian central bank lowered its monetary policy rate to 7.75%, given the downward deviation of inflation from the target level of 4.0%. The policy rate has remained unchanged in other countries.

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.