Visitors
The number of international visitors grew by 2.5% y/y to 2.4mn in 3Q24, with tourists, the primary segment, rising by 8.3% y/y and same-day visitors down by 15.2% y/y. Overall, tourist arrivals in 9M24 reached 4.0mn recovering at 100.1% of 9M19 levels. This was driven by the over performance (106.4%) in 1Q, and a full recovery in 3Q (100.3%), offsetting a slower recovery in 2Q (95.2%) due to political instability in the country.
Visitor growth in 3Q24 was primarily fueled by non-neighboring markets. Most visitors came from Russia, followed by Turkey, Armenia, Israel, and Kazakhstan. Together, these top-5 countries accounted for 65.6% of total arrivals. Notably, from top countries arrivals from Israel experienced the largest growth at +36.0% y/y, while Turkey saw a decline of -12.5% y/y. From the remaining countries, which represented 34.4% of total arrivals, China, Iran, Belarus and Saudi Arabia were key contributors to growth in 3Q24. Meanwhile, arrivals from the EU were down by 1.2% y/y accounting for 7.0% of total.
Revenues
Tourism revenues hit a record US$ 1.6bn in 3Q24, marking an 8.0% y/y growth from last year’s high base. The top sources of tourism revenue were Russia, followed by the EU, Turkey, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. From these top countries, revenue growth was positively impacted by contributions from Russia (+3.3% y/y), Israel (+33.8% y/y), and Saudi Arabia (+13.1% y/y), while revenues from the EU (-0.9% y/y) and Turkey (-13.3% y/y) declined. Other non-traditional markets also played a significant role in revenue growth, aligning with the increase in visitor numbers.
We project tourism revenues to reach US$ 4.4bn for 2024, up from US$ 4.1bn in 2023. The strong growth in tourist numbers from Asian countries, along with an increase in direct flights, suggests sustained growth in tourism revenues for the full 2024.
