In March 2024:
Brent oil price was up 4.6% m/m (+13.6% in 1Q24) and the potential of $100 barrel of oil is back, with JP Morgan suggesting a scenario that could lead to triple digits by September. However, there are a few factors that can hinder the growth, such as OPEC+ decisions, US production and its Strategic Petroleum Reserve dynamics.
Natural gas price was up 14.7% m/m (+0.1% in 1Q24). The commodity seems to be acquiring new consumer industry – AI. Natural gas faced the growing demand for electricity to support data centers and power the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.
Gold price was up 9.1% m/m (+8.1% in 1Q24). During the past quarter, precious metal reached new record highs several times, mainly driven by the same factors – increased demand from 1) Chinese investors 2) central banks, and 3) hedging geopolitical risks. Though the gold ETFs show fund outflows, driven by investor preference for the tangibility and privacy offered by physical gold.
Ammonium nitrate price was up 11.6% m/m (+33.3% in 1Q24). Despite the growth, ammonium nitrate has several challenges to deal with in the short and medium term. However, potential improvements in major economies and easing of supply chain issues (including the Red Sea) may support the larger rebound in demand for the latter half of 2024.
Wheat price was down 8.0% m/m (-25.6% in 1Q24). Protests of farmers in EU was the hot topic for the industry (wheat and grain in general) during the recent quarter. European farmers demand to halt special trade measures given to Ukraine that gives country unrestricted access to the EU market. Current system is set to expire on June 5, further measures will likely be known in upcoming weeks.
Copper price was up 4.3% m/m (+3.6% in 1Q24). Traders are anticipating a tighter copper market in the near future despite concerns about China’s economic growth. Disappointment over China’s stimulus measures has led to downgraded demand expectations for copper, yet lower interest rates and production cuts by miners are expected to tip the market into deficit.
Ferrosilicon – European ferrosilicon was down 0.1% m/m (+9.2% in 1Q24), while its Chinese counterpart lost 4.7% m/m (-8.2% in 1Q24). Outlook remains gloomy as Asian demand looks relatively weak.
