In January 2024:
Brent oil price was up 6.1% m/m. It was a first monthly gain for crude since September 2023. According to J.P. Morgan, there is now no geopolitical risk premium in oil prices due to supply’s capacity to absorb the current shocks.
Natural gas price was up 1.2% m/m. Modest gain was a result of positive and negative factors outweighing each other – most importantly, mild weather and sizeable inventories across Europe and temporary halt on reviewing new LNG export applications by the United States.
Gold price was down 1.1% m/m. Despite the modest decline, bullion held up above $2,000 per ounce psychological level so far this year, following the record-setting 2023. Wall Street is largely bullish on the precious metal for 2024, betting on low inflation (hence rate cuts) and more buying from central banks.
Ammonium nitrate price was up 4.2% m/m. Although this gain, its price remains 35.3% lower y/y. Decline came from falling natural gas prices – key component of ammonium nitrate production.
Wheat price was down 10.4% m/m. After the strong gains due to risk premiums, Black Sea bottlenecks and fears of a global recession are easing, sending the wheat prices lower.
Copper price was up 0.4% m/m. Despite the negligible gain, hedge funds are betting bullish on copper stocks, forecasting a significant deficit on the market in 2024. Any remaining anticipation of excess supply has disappeared completely and has been replaced by the likelihood of a substantial shortage.
Ferrosilicon – Chinese ferrosilicon stayed constant at $1,335 per ton, while its European counterpart showed an unusual increase of 13.8% m/m.
